Burapha University International Conference, BUU-2014

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Forecasting number of Thai haemophilia-A patient: Computer simulation by Stella software.
Suthatip - Thanapak, Cha-oncin - Sooksriwong

Last modified: 2014-06-13

Abstract


Haemophilia is a sex-linked hereditary bleeding disorder disease. Haemophiliapatients suffer from the disability to control blood clotting throughout their entire life. Theobjective of this study is to determine number of Thai haemophilia-A patient by usingcomputer model simulation. The number of patient was forecasted from electronic database ofhaemophilia-A patient who registered at National health security office (NHSO) from year2008-2012. The model was created to forecast the number of Thai haemophilia-A patient byusing Stella® software during 2013 to 2023. This model was composed of 3 types accordingto severity of the disease; mild, moderate and severe. Each model contained 2 levels; the toplevel and the sub level. The precision of model was evaluated with reference mode and will beaccepted at the number of patient which less than 10% varied from reference database. Incomparison with the actual data, the differences in number of patient reported from eachmodel was noted as follows; 1.43-5.37% in severe case, 2.22-5.75% in moderate case, and2.12-9.67% in mild case. The initial stock was the number of patient who registered in 2012,the in-flows rates came from two sources; the new registered case in each year and the oldcase in NHSO system, the out-flow rate came from the death forecasted by using the lifeexpectancy of each severity group. The simulation presented that the number of patient wouldincrease from 457 to 808 in severe haemophilia-A (76.67%) while moderate haemophilia-Awould more increase from 378 to 717 (89.52%) and 232 to 422 in mild haemophilia-A(81.81%) during 2013 to 2023. Moreover, the result showed that the number of patient wouldbe increased by 4-9% per year. The result of this study will be benefit for payers in resourceplanning such as human, equipment and medicine for haemophilia-A treatment.